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Germany's top five research institutes sharply cut their economic forecasts due to supply bottlenecks
2021-10-15 11:11:08
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14 covid-19, the German Economic Research Institute, the iffer Institute of economics, Kiel Institute of world economics, Halley Institute of economics and the Rhine Westphalia Economic Research Institute jointly released the report, which sharply lowered the economic forecast, saying that the economic situation of the country continued to be affected by the new crown epidemic situation, and it is expected that the intensive contact activities will not be fully normalized in the short term. In addition, the supply bottleneck of raw materials and initial products will continue to restrain the manufacturing industry for a period of time.


According to the latest report, the German economy will grow by 2.4% in 2021; In 2022, the German economy will gradually recover, with an increase of 4.8%. In the spring of this year, the prediction of the above Institute was obviously more optimistic, believing that the German economy will grow by 3.7% in 2021. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the overall German economy shrank by 4.9%.


The report points out that after the new wave of epidemic delayed the economic recovery from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, with the decline of infection rate in spring, Germany's GDP increased significantly. However, the supply bottleneck of manufacturing hinders production, and only consumption related services grow. Experts believe that the recovery process may continue to slow down in the winter of late 2021 and early 2022. On the one hand, even if the infection rate remains low, the activity of the service industry will still be lower than the normal level before the epidemic; On the other hand, the manufacturing industry will continue to be constrained by supply bottlenecks. The report said that the losses and delivery bottlenecks caused by the epidemic will be gradually overcome next year, and the capacity utilization rate will return to normal.


At the same time, major research institutes predict that consumer prices in Germany will rise by 3% this year and 2.5% in 2022. The public budget deficit as a percentage of Germany's GDP may decline from 4.9% in 2021 to 2.1% in 2022. The government debt ratio may drop from 71% in 2021 to 67% in 2022. Experts point out that although the economic consequences of COVID-19 will be gradually overcome, the challenges of climate change and the foreseeable slowdown in economic growth will lead to a reduction in consumption opportunities.


It is worth mentioning that over the past few weeks, many research institutions and experts have lowered their forecasts for the annual growth of the German economy, and the shortage of raw materials has had a negative impact on Germany's exports. According to the data released by the German Federal Bureau of statistics, the country's exports fell for the first time in August this year. Previously, German exports have maintained monthly growth since May 2020. According to the German Federation of industry, "the global supply chain problems, high logistics costs and unresolved trade disputes have darkened the economic outlook and have a great impact on German exports."


It is reported that major German economic research institutions issue joint economic forecast reports in spring and autumn every year, which is an important reference basis for the German federal government to formulate economic policies. (CCTV reporter Ruan Jiawen)


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